The Use of Intervention Approach in Individual and Aggregate Forecasting Methods for Burger Patties: A Case in Indonesia

The Indonesian beef consumption increases sharply during Ramadan and made a difference between supply and demand. The research aimed to study the demand pattern of burger patties and determine a suitable forecasting method compared between quantitative and intervention forecasting methods. The actual demand was intervened by experts based on reasons such as supply shortage, holidays, promotion, and government projects. The daily sales of burger patties were collected for a year. Then, the data were divided into training and testing data. Later, time-series forecasting was performed by software. Then, the best forecasting method for daily data was selected between Individual forecasting and Top-Down forecasting. Similarly, for weekly data, the best forecasting method was compared between aggregate forecasting and Bottom-Up forecasting. Then, repeat the process for the intervened sales data. The result revealed that the mean absolute percentage error was improved after intervention by about 3.64%-58.83%. The combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches improved forecast accuracy. In addition, the aggregate level or weekly sales forecast had higher forecast accuracy than the disaggregated level. The Bottom-Up forecast performs better than the aggregate forecast. Hence, we recommended the company plans based on weekly data and implement Every Low Price to reduce the demand fluctuation

The Use of Intervention Approach in Individual and Aggregate Forecasting Methods for Burger Patties: A Case in Indonesia

The Indonesian beef consumption increases sharply during Ramadan and made a difference between supply and demand. The research aimed to study the demand pattern of burger patties and determine a suitable forecasting method compared between quantitative and intervention forecasting methods. The actual demand was intervened by experts based on reasons such as supply shortage, holidays, promotion, and government projects. The daily sales of burger patties were collected for a year. Then, the data were divided into training and testing data. Later, time-series forecasting was performed by software. Then, the best forecasting method for daily data was selected between Individual forecasting and Top-Down forecasting. Similarly, for weekly data, the best forecasting method was compared between aggregate forecasting and Bottom-Up forecasting. Then, repeat the process for the intervened sales data. The result revealed that the mean absolute percentage error was improved after intervention by about 3.64%-58.83%. The combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches improved forecast accuracy. In addition, the aggregate level or weekly sales forecast had higher forecast accuracy than the disaggregated level. The Bottom-Up forecast performs better than the aggregate forecast. Hence, we recommended the company plans based on weekly data and implement Every Low Price to reduce the demand fluctuation

Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Community Engagement and Education for Sustainable Development

This proceeding contains articles on the various ideas of the academic community presented at The 3rd International Conference on Community Engagement and Education for Sustainable Development (ICCEESD 2022) organized by the Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia on 7th-8th December 2022.  ICCEESD is a biannual forum for sharing, benchmarking, and discussing HEI’s activities in developing Education for Sustainable Development towards community engagement. Education for Sustainability as a teaching strategy for resolving community challenges through formal, informal, or non-formal education is expected to benefit from various community service best practices by academics, researchers, and students. The 3rd ICCEESD has “Strengthening Education for Sustainability Towards Better Community Engagement” as its theme this year. It is expected that the 3rd ICCEESD will provide a forum for the presenters and participants to exchange best practices, policies, and conceptual implementation of Education for Sustainability towards better community engagement and explore ideas to address community needs.  Conference Title: 3rd International Conference on Community Engagement and Education for Sustainable DevelopmentConference Theme: Strengthening Education for Sustainability Towards Better Community EngagementConference Acronyms: ICCEESD 2022Conference Date: 7th-8th December 2022Conference Location: Grand Rohan Jogja Yogyakarta, IndonesiaConference Organizer: Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesi